Stay or Go. What will Drew Allar do?

The answer isn't obvious

I’ve been around too long to think Drew Allar would give a substantive answer to any questions related to his future at Penn State. But that doesn’t prevent me from wondering.

If you rewind a few years to Saquon’s final year at Penn State, everyone knew it was coming. For as tight-lipped as Penn State can be, everyone in the program was indirectly open about it. I believe sometime after the fact James Franklin even said something to extent that he told Barkley he really should go pro. That’s not unusual for Franklin and his higher end prospects, but it was sort of a public admission of the “well duh, of course he was going pro” dynamic.

To his credit, Barkley played it coy, but even he knew that we knew. All of this culminated with Barkley not really getting badgered by his pending life choices. Everyone just operated from the same, unsaid place.

Right now, the vibe doesn’t feel nearly as certain for Allar. While he is likely seen as one of the best five or six quarterbacks in a weaker quarterback class, Allar might be able to squeeze out more upside if he were to return. Allar can easily be described as “very good” but his high draft stock isn’t unquestionable to same degree that Barkley’s was. If Allar’s stock is as much potential as it is performance, another go around the block wouldn’t hurt his cause any.

This is especially true when you consider Allar’s return would immediately vault Penn State towards another high expectations season. Allar wouldn’t be short on high stakes moments in 2025.

It depends on who you ask, but an unofficial pass through Google lands Allar on most mock draft boards anywhere from the 2nd to 4th round. There are a few mock drafts that place him in the Top 10 but that doesn’t appear to be the prevailing sentiment by most of the people whose opinion you should take seriously.

And while it’s not all about the money, it’s not, not about the money either. See, the Top 10 picks of the first round compared to the first 10 picks of the third round per Sportrac. Allar getting drafted and Allar having a long career are two different things. A good rookie deal at a high leverage position ain’t a bad way to retire if it doesn’t pan out.

You and I, normal people, would be happy to take this problem of third round money - see John Goodman’s advice in The Gambler. Then again, you and I wouldn’t have a reasonable path to double it either.

“You get up two-and-half million dollars, any asshole in the world knows what to do. You get a house with a 25-year roof, an indestructible economy car and you put the rest into the system at 3 to 5 percent and you pay your taxes. That’s your base. Get me? That’s your fortress of solitude. That puts you, for the rest of your life, at a level of ‘F You.’”

So there’s that too. The idea that if Drew Allar is going to play football he may as well get paid very well for it. There’s also something to be said for the idea of heading to a franchise where Allar can grow for a year or two - which usually happens later in the draft - rather than a team where he has to put out all the fires at once in exchange for more money. There are a lot of reasons why Christian Hackenberg’s career didn’t pan out in the NFL, getting drafted by the Jets was absolutely one of them

Some related thoughts from Allar during a chat we had last summer.

“It’s definitely something that I didn’t expect when I was in high school,” Allar said of his NFL future. “Especially my sophomore and junior year. But then by the time I got here it was in the back of my mind. I never really thought about it too much though [but] that’s obviously my dream. I came to Penn State to not only be a Penn State Nittany Lion for life, but hopefully catapult myself to that next level. But I know I can’t do that without handling business here first and doing what I’m supposed to do here on the field and in the classroom.”

“I think, honestly, it takes time for kids to develop no matter their age or anything like that,” Allar said. “This is my [thinks] sixth or seventh year playing quarterback full-time. Most quarterbacks are bred quarterbacks from the day one that they start putting on the pads, they’re gonna be a quarterback. That just wasn’t me. And I’m glad that wasn’t me honestly because I felt like that helps me play a lot. I can really understand everything because growing up like I was tight and I was blocking. So at the end of the day, it just takes time and development … sometimes it just takes time and maturity. I haven’t really been immersed in the full quarterback life yet for that long. So it just takes time and I think I learned a lot from last year and I’m doing a lot more this off-season so far which is going to help me hopefully going into spring ball and fall camp.

“I think I do [have to remind myself of the journey some quarterbacks have taken]. I think it’s just kind of natural to look around and see other people and just look at them because everybody’s journey is different at the end of the day,” Allar added. “But you know, most of the time you don’t have a guy that comes in right away like Trevor Lawrence did and just takes over. Like he didn’t start till halfway through the season anyway, so it still took a little bit of time for him. But he stepped in year one and took them to the national championship, but everybody’s journey is different.”

So will he stay? Will he go? I don’t know, but you could argue it either way. Drama indeed.